In 2018, at the height of his political power, Donald Trump pushed for a revision of the free trade agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada. He had announced it from his campaign and called it the worst trade deal his country had ever signed.

From his point of view, this treaty did not suit him, it eliminated jobs and above all favored Mexico, which provided cheap labor to the region and attracted American investments which left their country. In this logic, the negotiation obviously had to favor the United States and in a kind of “zero sum” Mexico and to a lesser extent Canada had to make concessions.

AMLO, in his capacity as president-elect, even without taking office, in this process that many of us still do not understand and in which Peña Nieto willingly delivered everything, was asked to take charge of the negotiation. He appointed a representative who, in practice, is the one who made all Mexican decisions. If today you consider that it is a bad agreement or that it jeopardizes Mexican sovereignty, here you cannot blame the previous governments, nor say that they inherited it. He and his team negotiated and agreed everything. At the time, they presented it as a negotiation success.

Several mistakes were made. The first was to negotiate directly with the United States, leaving Canada aside. If one thing was learned in the negotiation of the initial treaty, it was that Canada always had to be added, not only because it consumed a lot of Mexican products or because there were Canadian investments in Mexico, but essentially because politically this inclusion represented a counterweight in the negotiations with the United States. Neither AMLO nor his team understood this and in this subordination-fear that Donald Trump always had or still has, without Canada at the table, he conceded everything, even what was impossible to respect or that he knew already himself that he would not respect. .

Another mistake was to consider that it was a purely political agreement, a bit like AMLO, based on principles, generalities, “photos”, without specific expressions and whose respect, according to him, in under Mexican law, is optional. For this reason, through his representative, he introduced phrases and evidence like “Mexico’s natural resources belong to the Mexicans” and he still maintains that Mexico can change its laws because it is sovereign. As if the treaty or its revision called into question this power or that it was responsible for interpreting it. Of course, the treaty has a political component, but it also has very clear and precise rules and their non-application has consequences.

This week, two of these specific problems were present between the two countries. The American and Canadian questioning of the Mexican energy policy which favors PEMEX and CFE and makes them quasi-monopolies supported by the government, which is contrary to what was agreed in the T-MEC and the import of GM corn that Mexico bans. Both positions have hurt American investors and farmers.

To continue discussions on the first of these topics, Mexico’s newest economic secretary and her team met with the US Trade Representative in Washington. After the meeting, everyone came out to declare on their side. Bad sign.

The Mexican delegation, on the instructions of AMLO, continues with the argument that Mexico is sovereign and in its exercise it can support PEMEX or CFE as it wishes. This is not the discussion. The time to argue this was when the treaty was negotiated and not now in the middle of a process that is very clear: consultations (already started)-panel-sanctions. Mexico’s position is so absurd that’s why the former economy secretary resigned.

In practice, it has only been possible to extend the consultation phase, now until the meeting with Biden in January next year. As in a conversation with the President of the United States, he was going to say that he was stepping down from the panel. As if that decision was really in his hands or that was what the meeting was for. The Mexican president believes that all presidents decide like him, without analyzing, without consulting, following intuition, the political spark.

We already know what AMLO will offer. The control and containment of migratory flows in Mexican territory. But this offer may not be enough because the other thing AMLO does not understand is the pressure his positions generate on Joe Biden. His political enemies and concerned American investors will use all their lobbying skills to pressure Biden and his party. They would present him as a weak president in the face of a populist government like that of AMLO. Many are already saying this and Biden cannot afford it because what is at stake is the 2024 US election.

Thus, the Mexican government is heading towards an impasse, without viable solutions and much to its chagrin, the Biden government will most likely resort to the panel and sanctions that the treaty itself contemplates.

The worst thing is that AMLO, as the classic would say: “does not understand that he does not understand”.

Jorge Santibáñez is president of the Mexa Institute

www.mexainstitute.org

TW @mexainstitute