“NATO is brain dead,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in mid-2019. His reasoning for expressing this strong sentence was the lack of involvement on the part of the United States, then under the mandate of Donald Trump. However, criticism soon emerged, both from Germany’s Angela Merkel and Alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg, who assured the organization would continue to be a “cornerstone” of security in Europe. And in the world.

Four years have passed since these declarations and the geopolitical scenario has been turned upside down since then. And NATO, far from being hopeless, has taken on a special role and has become an increasingly coveted organization. Unsurprisingly, its role in Russia’s war against Ukraine is decisive and countries hitherto distant from the Alliance, such as Finland and Sweden, have shown interest in joining the group. The first has succeeded, the second is waiting.

And he is also waiting for his possible entry into the Ukrainian group. This is undoubtedly the second most important outstanding issue for the Alliance. The first will be to decide who will be its new leader, since Stoltenberg’s mandate, which began in 2014, has already been extended due to the war in Ukraine and he wants to return to his country and occupy the presidency of the Bank Central Norway. , for the who was named last year. So, although everything indicated that the Nordic could extend his position until next April, when the Alliance will be 75 years old, his departure will arrive, as planned, on October 1.

The hens have already started, although there is no official candidate. Traditionally, NATO Secretaries General are Heads of State or Government, but this is not an established norm and a Deputy Prime Minister or Foreign Minister could also hold this position.

What seems clear is that they want to promote a change of scenery and a touch of modernity. And, in this last aspect, the appointment of a woman for the first time at the head of the organization rings strong. Among the few who could enter the shortlist are the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, her Danish counterpart, Mette Fredirksen, or the Canadian Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, who would also be the first North American to accede to the General Secretariat. .

Among the European allies, a joint candidacy of Poland and the Baltic countries seems obvious, increasingly decisive in the fight to curb NATO’s eastern flank. But there are also traditional options, that is to say that of a European head of government. In this case, the Dutchman Mark Rutte or the Spaniard Pedro Sánchez sounds strong. Former leaders are also entering the bets, such as the Italian Mario Draghi or the Briton Boris Johnson.

Whoever is chosen, the truth is that he will have to lead a 31-member – and growing – organization which, contrary to what Macron has said, is more alive than ever.

Possible candidates

Pedro Sanchez. Spain

Although he himself has dismissed rumors that he will lead NATO, his loss of support in the polls and a possible failure in July’s snap elections suggest that Sánchez may end up throwing in the towel. His excessive role in foreign policy and the impending rotating presidency of the EU might be his best bid.

Marc Rutte. The Netherlands

He is a big favourite, mainly among EU allies, in the Active Leaders section. His country provided three general secretaries to the organization. A plus that could however be a handicap, since many voices are committed to integrating leaders of nations that have not yet led NATO.

Klaus Iohannis. Romania

The Romanian President’s option to become the first Eastern European leader to head NATO has deflated, mainly due to the recent renewal of the Alliance’s Deputy Secretary General, also Romanian Mircea Geoana, until October 2024, so that Geoana – ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs – could already succeed Stoltenberg.

Kaja Callas. Estonia

That of the Estonian prime minister is one of the most ringing names in bets. And it is that she would meet most of the requirements: a woman, an active politician and head of a government of Eastern Europe -especially of a Baltic country-. His Lithuanian colleague, Ingrida Simonyte too, although the chances in this case seem more remote.

Boris Johnson. United Kingdom

A few days ago, the former British Prime Minister assured: “At the head of NATO? It’s really a good idea. I have this idea and let no one forget that there is a candidate on the line. His name sounded loud when he occupied Downing Street, but he chickened out. The Chief of Defense, Ben Wallace – appointed precisely by Johnson – has gained more momentum.

Chrystia Freeland. Canada

The Canadian Deputy Prime Minister is the candidate from the western shore of the Atlantic. Her candidacy would not be insignificant: following the idea of ​​a woman at the head of NATO for the first time, she would also be a pioneer as the first American to take up the post. His radical speech against the Russian invasion led him to acquire an extremist role which is not appreciated in Europe.