This is not good news to see rains what the models show us in the latest updates. After a long follow-up during which at the end of the week several models worked with the arrival of pulses of cold airrains and a significant drop in temperatures, now everything They are delaying possible changes until the second week of October.

Currently, the only model that brings rains closer to the Atlantic is that of Canada. GEM.

Let’s see the weather maps

We will compare the results of the three main global models with which we work. We’re guaranteed a week with temperatures well above average, and only one of the models starts to show interesting changes by the end.

GFS Model

The American model draws for next Sunday a vast anticyclonic ridge which embraces our entire country and a good part of the European continent, block the advance of Atlantic storms in the far west of the peninsula. Additionally, the winds are coming from North Africa, so we would continue with well above average temperatures to end the week.

GEM Model

According to the calculations of the Canadian model, next Sunday we will have much more defined and robust low pressure centers in Western Europe. In addition to being strongest storms, are much closer to our coasts, reaching us early next week, according to the current calculations of this model. The winds would also be very strong from the North African latitudes, so temperatures would also end the week at values ​​well above average.

ECMWF Model

According to the European model, we will end the week with an intermediate configuration between what the American and Canadian models show us.

We continue under the influence of high pressures, with the approach of pulsations of cold air coming from the Atlantic.

But the blockade would stop this advance, breaking up the circulation and leaving an isolated depression to the west of the peninsula, which would not affect us and would chase warm southerly winds.

In summary

The latest updates to the model have significantly reduced the probabilities that at the end of this week we will begin to see changes that will bring the rains closer to us. We also do not observe changes leading to a significant decrease in thermometers. We are working with deadlines that still exceed 5 days, so reliability is not yet good and we may see changes in future updates.

Are you still thinking about any face changes in the coming weeks? Even if the probabilities As the changes arriving before the middle of the month diminish, I still hope that the changes will arrive as we highlight in the seasonal forecast of what the fall will be like, no later than the middle of the month. For now, this week we will have to continue to face much drier and hotter weather than usual. Some fronts will impact the northern end of the peninsula with some occasional precipitation, but overall dynamics will continue to be very abnormal.

We will continue to monitor model updates to continue reporting.

A hug.

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