After commanding the unit in NATO Implementation Force operations, retired Colonel J. Enrique Fojón Lagoa (1947) knows very well what happens in wartime. Three decades ago he was in Bosnia take part in the war in Yugoslavia as a lieutenant-colonel of the third landing battalion of the marine infantry brigade. Command Diploma Special operations and Parachute Units, the colonel also holds a bachelor’s degree in law, a master’s degree in security and defence, a doctorate in international relations and was an adviser to the minister of defense between 2012 and 2016.
Fojón is currently a researcher and professor at Francisco de Vitoria University, from where he attends 20 minutes to talk about the current situation of the war in Ukraine, the advance of the Ukrainian army in recent weeks, the recent Russian mobilizations and the involvement of the United States in the conflict.
What happened militarily for Ukraine to gain so much ground over Russia in recent weeks?Reinforcements and logistical bases of the Russians are behind the rivers and by destroying their bridges they leave them surrounded. The problem Russia had was that Ukraine was dragged in with far superior technology. Moreover, since February, little has been said about the Russian or Ukrainian air force. Since then, I read American reports that always speak halfway. Ukraine and Russia seem to have closed the airspace, making it deaf, blind and penguin. There are no major air operations. The war in the air will totally change after this conflict. It will focus on drones.
Did Russia make mistakes at the tactical level?The Ukrainian army has performed well from the point of view of the will to fight, but, in addition, it is that the Russians have found a combat system that cancels out theirs. They carried out three main actions: one with armored columns and paratroopers in the north to take control of Kyiv, and the other two in the south and east, in Odessa and in the Donbass. Ukraine’s plan, technologically and logistically backed by the Americans, cuts off the two sources of Russian combat capability, which are command and control and logistics. Drones equipped with anti-tank missiles limited Russian progress. Then, when the front stabilized, they prepared this counter-attack, which requires a lot of expertise and skill, with highly trained units and, above all, an environment that nullifies the combat capacity of the army. Russian. And it was through electronic warfare or electronic boardleaving the enemy blind and deaf.
Can Russia regain the military initiative and rebalance the conflict?If you have a combat system that isn’t working for you, you need to change it, but it’s not fast. It doesn’t work overnight.
What will happen in the weeks to come?It’s impossible to guess. They have 200,000 men and they are going to train them, but that does not mean that everything will change in 15 days. Now comes a huge strategic problem. Russia does not want to lose Ukraine, because it remains stuck in the Black Sea. The province of Crimea is very important for them, where they have a naval base. Russia has started transporting submarines from the north to the Atlantic, and that is something else. If the war spreads, other spaces will be used. It is also no coincidence that this week Korea fired a missile over Japan.
What relationship can it have?Let the United States know that they have to be careful of two different sites.
Precisely in the north of the continent, there was a sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Russia and the United States accuse each other. What do you think could have happened?I prefer to keep quiet.
But you will have an opinion as to why it was done now.When these things happen, we often think: who benefits? I leave it there.
You commanded regiments in a war. Is it useful to have people in the ranks who may not have the morale, having been forced to mobilize and many of whom are unprepared?They say they don’t want to fight, but we’ll have to see it. Replacement soldiers are useful as long as they are well organized. And as long as they have confidence in the command.
Do you think that in this case they have confidence in their high command?You have to get into the mood, because things are not always as they say. You have to start from a historical fact to begin to understand the story they are defending.
And what is?When the Cold War (which was not a war) ends, the western world treats the former Soviet Union as if it had been defeated. The USSR is collapsing because the communist system has collapsed. Russia is a vast region where there are different races and languages. Notice how this is such a diverse and vast country that during the cold war a Russian artillery piece had flag signals because you had up to four languages on the same piece.
It was precisely in Putin’s last speech that he appealed to national figures such as Catherine II or to events such as Potemkin, the Homeland War or the Soviet Union itself. How important is this nationalist and nostalgic discourse?The nationalist discourse is the basis of the Russian conception. Russia has a very concrete idiosyncrasy and history. The Russian is much criticized and distorted for his way of being, but we will have to see the West, which also has its own theme…
With regard to the question of annexations, while more than ten years ago Russia had a confrontation with Georgia, Putin recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but without join. However, with Donbass, Kherson and Zaporiya (and Crimea in 2014) he took that step. Why did you want to annex Ukrainian territory?In NATO’s Bucharest Strategic Concept of 2009, we see that Georgia is not mentioned so much as Ukraine. In fact, it is said that Russia must cooperate and that France and especially Germany do not want to have problems with the Russian Federation. In fact, the Nord Stream design is a geopolitical design. Why are they building a 1,200 mile underwater gas pipeline between St. Petersburg and Germany? Why not go through the Baltic countries? Because Russia wants a buffer (a wall) in the west, just like Belarus and Ukraine. Have two puppet states. When the Maidan events happened in 2014, the United States got involved and since that year, American, Canadian and English instructors have been training the Ukrainian army. That year, seeing that it could not keep Ukraine on its side, Russia decided to retake Crimea and Donbass.
This Tuesday, Zelensky signed an executive order guaranteeing that he would not negotiate as long as Putin was president. Could this be a strategy to force internal pressure?It must be clear that if Putin is replaced, it is by someone tougher than him. Moreover, Ukraine will negotiate the end of the war when the United States announces it.
And why aren’t they doing it yet?Since February 24 of this year, the Americans have given $16.9 billion in aid to Ukraine. What they want to do is keep them operational for a while and they have given the Ukrainians the latest in field artillery. Laura Cooper [subsecretaria de Defensa para Rusia, Ucrania y Eurasia de EE UU] He said the Ukrainians were demonstrating their ability to use what they had to degrade Russian logistics and command control, creating opportunities for maneuver and advance. How is it done? Well, having the necessary equipment to do so. Some of this equipment is used by the Ukrainians after being trained, but there will also be equipment that they will not want to give them because it is high precision and is used by the Americans.
How could the United States force Ukraine to accept?Very easy, turn off the tap.
Does this mean that you will have to accept that part of the territory will not be returned to you?Yes, part of its territory will be ceded.
Putin assured that once the provinces were annexed, he would not hesitate to respond with all available force, referring to nuclear weapons. Do you think you could escalate the war that much?The weapons are there. See how World War I began. One misunderstands, the other doesn’t know what he’s saying, everything starts to mix up and things end up blowing up.
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