The only relief most of the United States can hope for soon from the dangerous and irritating smoke from Canada’s wildfires are brief periods of sweltering humidity and high temperatures from a southern heat wave that has already set in. proved deadly, according to meteorologists.

And then the smoke will likely move back to the north-central and eastern United States.

That’s because none of the 235 wildfires raging across Canada or the static weather patterns that are responsible for this jumble of weather disruptions show any signs of abating next week or beyond, experts from the Weather Forecast Center of Canada. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

First, the stagnant weather pattern created abnormally hot and dry conditions for Canada to experience wildfires and record highs. Then he favored a situation in which the only attenuation occurs when low pressure systems occur, causing some areas to receive smoke from the north and other sweltering air from the south.

Smoke or heat. “Choose your poison,” said Weather Prediction Center chief of operations Greg Carbin. “The conditions are not going to be very favorable.”

“As long as these fires continue to burn in the north, they will be a problem for us,” Carbin said. “As long as there is something burning, there will be smoke that we will have to deal with.”

Saint Louis is an example. The city experienced two days of unhealthy air on Tuesday and Wednesday, but by Thursday it will have “improved air quality due to very high temperatures and humid heat”, said Bryan Jackson, an expert from the weather forecast center. The forecast is for temperatures with a wind chill of 42.8 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit), with heat of 38.3 Celsius (101 Fahrenheit) and sweltering humidity.

The low pressure system was stationary over New England on Wednesday, and as the winds move counterclockwise, areas to the west, such as Chicago and the Midwest, receive smoky winds from the north, while the Areas east of the phenomenon receive warm southerly winds, Jackson said.

As this low pressure system continues its march and another moves through the central Great Plains and Lake Superior, the north-central region is getting temporary relief, Jackson said. But when the low pressure system continues its course, the smoke returns.

“We have this carousel of air that goes through the Midwest, and every once in a while it blows smoke right into the city where you live,” said University of Chicago atmospheric scientist Liz Moyer. . “And as long as the fires continue, you can expect to see those periodic days of bad air, with the only relief coming when the fires go out or the weather turns down.”

The atmospheric model’s stillness is “woefully unusual,” said NOAA’s Carbin, who looked at records dating back to 1980 to see if there was anything even remotely similar. “What amazes me is their perseverance.”

Why has the atmospheric model stagnated? This seems to be happening more frequently, with some scientists suggesting that human-caused climate change is causing more situations where the weather becomes stagnant. Moyer and Carbin say it’s too early to tell if that’s the case.

But Carbin and Canadian fire scientist Mike Flannigan said there is a clear climatic index for fires in Canada. And they noted that these fires are unlikely to go out any time soon and that there is no sign in the forecast that this is likely to change.

Almost every province in Canada has active fires. A record 80,000 square kilometers (30,000 square miles) have been burned, an area almost as large as South Carolina, according to the Canadian government.

And the fire season in Canada really starts until July.

“It’s been a very crazy year. It’s unusual to have fires across the country,” said Flannigan, a professor at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia. “Normally it would be a regional situation… not generalized and simultaneous.”

The warmer and drier than normal air creates ideal atmospheric conditions for fires, Flanningan said. Warmer weather due to climate change means the atmosphere is absorbing more moisture from plants, allowing them to ignite more easily and burn faster and hotter.

“Fires are events of pure extremes,” he said.

And where there is fire, there is smoke.

High heat and smoky conditions are stressors on the body and can cause potential human health issues, said Ed Avol, professor emeritus at the University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine.

But Avol added that while the smoke haze from wildfires is a visual indicator to stay indoors, there is a hidden danger of breathing in harmful pollutants like ozone, even on clear skies. He also pointed out that there are changes in air chemistry that can occur when smoke from wildfires is blown by the wind, which could have additional, lesser-known impacts on the body.

And we are only in June. The seasonal forecast for the rest of the summer in Canada “is mostly hot and dry,” and that’s not conducive to putting out the fires, Flannigan said. “It’s been a crazy year and I don’t know where it’s going to go.”

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Associated Press writer Melina Walling contributed to this report from Chicago.

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