Due to the pandemic, face-to-face meetings and summits of world leaders have been restricted for 2 years. Although there have been a few virtual encounters, it’s definitely not the same. In a physical meeting, a series of factors are combined, such as the manifestations and the paraphernalia of power which include the deployment of delegations with their rank and security, the gestures and tone of the leaders, the possibility of feeling the moods and the reactions of the interlocutors and measuring their receptivity or rejection of their own proposals, as well as the alternation between official bodies and informal or side conversations (where the most important agreements are generally forged).

A few days ago, on November 15 and 16, the G20 summit took place, in what is the most important face-to-face meeting after the pandemic pause.

What is the G20? The Group of Twenty is an international forum made up of the world’s major developed and emerging economies. In total, there are 19 countries and the European Union. According to data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the members of the G20 represent 85% of world GDP, 75% of international trade and two-thirds of the world’s population. What are you doing? Its mission is to solve the world’s most pressing problems: from financial crises to wars, including climate change, natural disasters, political commitments, the fight against corruption, development, gender equality, and more. These issues are first addressed in sessions held throughout the year, culminating in the summit, which is held in a different country each year and where leaders sign a final declaration committing to discuss and collaborate on agreed projects.

How did senior leaders arrive at this meeting? Vladimir Putin was not present, who although invited by the host, the Indonesian president, did not want to expose himself to the ridicule of the majority of the participants and expose his loneliness and that of his country. For his part, his ally Xi Jinping was making his first appearance as a leader re-elected for the second time and as the most powerful Chinese head of state since Mao. Biden also arrived on the right foot, having avoided what was shaping up to be an electoral debacle in the midterm elections, thereby preserving much of his authority and competitiveness to seek re-election. On the European side, most of the leaders present came with a weakened profile, both due to internal complications exacerbated exponentially by the war in Ukraine, and due to the lack of cohesion between them. Ditto for Asian leaders.

We must not forget that not so long ago German Chancellor Scholz visited China, in clear recognition of its main trading partner, ensuring the continuity of this state of affairs in difficult times for the German economy (thus excluding any possibility of direct conflict with China).

Latin America was represented by Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, although only the Argentine president was present. Bolsonaro, who is about to leave, was not present, nor was the Mexican president who has focused his foreign policy efforts on our region. With this, the low level of influence of our region in this bloc is maintained, and therefore in the global agenda. For the next releases, it is to be assumed that Brazil reinvigorates its participation in the presidency of Lula, given its weight in environmental matters with the question of the Amazon and its impact on world food production. In the case of Mexico and as long as AMLO governs, this will probably continue in the background.

Perhaps the most relevant aspect of the summit revolved around the United States and China. The two leaders had a bilateral meeting beforehand, the aim of which was to lower the level of tension between the parties and to better channel their rivalry so as not to further destabilize a very uncertain world order with multidimensional problems as few times before.

Whether the intended goal will be successful remains to be seen, but at least the sides have reaffirmed what their red lines are. We must not forget that Xi Jinping came to this very strong summit of a fresh new mandate (which could be for life), while Biden approaches the second part of his mandate with less power due to the loss of control of the House of Representatives. and Additionally, with an inward shift in priorities, thinking about re-election or democratic continuity in government in 2 more years. This means that the United States will most likely have less of an international role in the next two years, with the notable exception of the agenda with China, which is directly linked to American domestic politics.

Xi Jinping’s empowerment was on full display in a hallway exchange with Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada, which was captured on camera (it cannot be ruled out that the Chinese leader intended it that way, with a message for Western powers, but also for his national audience showing how he defends national interests and positions the country). There, he questioned Trudeau for leaking details of a bilateral meeting, implying that if Canada wants to talk with China, it must start by following the ground rules (in this case, favoring Chinese-style secrecy). .

This meeting takes place in a climate of tough relations between the parties, which includes the arbitrary detention of two Canadians who were allegedly real hostages in retaliation for the arrest of the daughter of the comptroller of the company Huawei, whose extradition was requested by the United States. Eventually, both were released when the arrest was lifted and the Chinese businesswoman returned to her country. Added to this is the exclusion of Huawei in the Canadian 5G infrastructure and the accusation of this country of Chinese espionage and attempts to interfere in its political system.

We will have to see if this episode translates into political and economic measures, such as the cessation of certain Chinese imports from Canada, as happened some time ago with Australia. During his 10-year rule, Xi has leveraged his foreign policy as a way to bolster his country’s power at the top. This heightened activism has gone hand in hand with stronger belligerence and tenacity to confront other powers. The relationship with Canada could be a taste of a new scenario. If Xi deliberately chooses to “take action” with this country, he will test his greatest assertiveness with one of the United States’ closest allies and also a neighbor. In this way, it will also test the strength of the alliance between the two North American states.

Regarding the agenda of the meeting which included a large number of pressing issues such as the war in Ukraine, efforts to mitigate climate change, the energy and economic crisis, health issues, migration, food production and organized crime, there are unfortunately no significant advances or decisions to highlight. Basically and in general terms, previous agreements and declarations have been continued, which are politically correct expressions of the will to collaborate, but without a real commitment to act together in the face of the great challenges facing the world.

In short, this summit was more for sniffing, watching and sometimes showing the teeth.